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I must say, until I found out what Harmonic Patterns were in Forex, I was, without knowing it, blind to many aspects to what make certain moves occur at certain times seemingly without warning; no price action, or indicator could help you predict certain moves. Then comes my learning of Harmonic Patterns with use of MetaTrader4.

It’s very hard to go into all aspects of Harmonic Trading but the thing that has helped me the most is seeking out the Harmonic Indicators for MT4, these are NEN and Nen’s ZUP Indicators specifically. They seem to always find no matter what time frame the Crab, Bat, and Gartley Patterns. Basically, the lengths of the legs of each swing in certain circumstances are relative to each other in such a way that the same patterns keep showing up and we can trade them depending on whether they are a bullish or bearish pattern.

Examples of Harmonic Patterns

Here I have an example of a BULLISH BAT HARMONIC PATTERN which has formed after the D leg on our Hourly AUDUSD chart. What this signifies is that the pattern has been recognized by the indicator (or you can eye it if your real good) to be a long at some point in the near future. Working on higher time frames it could take half a day for the ensuing long movement to form after the pattern forms. In this case within an hour we see price shoot up 60 pips hitting our target and then more.

This does not always work, here is an example from today on the USDCHF wheretwo patterns formed, a longer term Bullish Gartley as displayed in the blue background indicator, and also a Bullish Bat pattern form on the moves on the shorter term. So the Gartley formed as a result of almost a days worth of price action, the Bat formed from only a few hours worth, and yet, they both result in a move that doesn’t get you into trouble, but it certainly doesn’t gain many pips in the end.

Please do not quote me, but I have seen reports of Harmonic Patterns working upwards of 90% of the time. Going from a trader that was 30% right, and still successful, imagine how I am doing at double the rate of success with the same amount relatively of pips earned. Harmonics has been doing well for me regardless, I am now an avid student of this method and invite comments and questions to make this method work better for us all.

Please share your thoughts below.

What more can I say except wow when it comes to this trade, just so simple using the TOP TREND method which is is my opinion better than Chandelier stops due to them also acting as trend lines of sorts visually helping you understand the direction of trends, but what is most important is to identify short term retracements, buy high, sell low, vice versa, and make sure you get in near the tops of swings not the bottoms, you’ll be much happier in this market.  I don’t put 100% faith or my system in one indicator but combined with volume indicators, knowing the trend is changing and picking up it helps as you can see below, price just moves sideways, you can draw a trend line above or below and sell the breakout which occurs at the same time the Heiken Ashi bars change to red, and the top trend indicator changes to red.

But to the matter at hand, AUDUSD was just simply an easy trade this morning, knowing that it was being sold en masse almost vs other majors I expected a move down, but nothing this intense.  At 2:15AM the top trend indicator is violated and I short and it goes down an incredible amount, getting out at the second circle which turned out to be another good entry point but the pair had been see-sawing around 1.000 for so long I just didn’t expect the reversal of AUDUSD to happen today, if that is what’s happening here.

Does anyone else see this as a reversal of AUDUSD or just a correction for another move higher?

This is a trade I did not enter but I just saw that JPY was strong against the majors and CAD was being sold incredibly almost at the same time and if you look back you can see two places for entries at least using a simple moving average.

The crisis in Japan with the Nuclear Reactor at Fukushima has led the Bank of Japan to take measures to backstop any fleeing of investors offshore with an influx of Yen into the market.  And this has for the interim bolstered the Yen by keeping money in the country and even attracting speculators to buy.   But their stock market continues to decline and if you look at correlations between their indexes and the currencies this may not last forever.

Incredible moves on all JPY crosses today really.

Did anyone else catch any good moves?

Today really defied my expectations with this pair, I entered where you see the first circle but only anticipated a 50 pip move.  Price hits above my mark but then retraces but hits the LSMA and quickly shoots back up all morning, we saw a retracement since but unreal amount of volume on this pair today wasn’t there?  The Japan Quake and Fukushima nuclear crisis must have much to do with this USD strength and less demand for the CAD, but what are these reasons we can explore together?  I’ve been reading many reasons why currencies are doing this but one article says this, another says that, me?  I’m making pips by just following the charts!

As you can see, I was way off but in a good way!

As you can imagine, CADJPY was an incredible pair to trade as well today but I did not think to enter it.

ECN BROKER LIST
Updated March 2011

This is an update to my old post called ECN FOREX BROKERS because I see many traders come searching for the reasons to use an ECN broker or not when trading Forex, truthfully an ECN broker, a true ECN broker that is, may not be right for you and your particular situation. Moreover, an broker may claim to be an ECN but how do we know they are truly an ECN broker or not? This has been a question posed to me many times and I never really took the time to write it all out, why an ECN broker is better to use or not.  Generally speaking, there are many that argue whether correct or not that there are two opposing forces in the Forex Market when it comes to brokers, those that are market makers legally but artificially creating a sub market of sorts (their own pool of liquidity) that you are trading into that does or does not necessarily even reach the real interbank market where the world is trading; rather a market maker requires for you to win on a trade (and them to win as well) someone else in their pool of liquidity (i.e. their own brokerage) to enter into a position that loses, paying you and the brokerage, in other words, they win only if someone loses just like you do.  On ECN Brokers, this is not the case since you are putting your orders through directly to the market.  Therefore a dealing desk forex broker generally does not have any quotes from banks (the interbank market) to match the the quote for we their clients, simply put they are the one’s creating the matching quotes even if there are not traders at that instant in their pool looking to trade against your position.  Remember, someone wins, someone loses the essence of speculatory risk based trading, but using a market maker seems less and less attractive does it not?

How do I know if a broker is really an ECN broker or not?

Generally speaking, brokers offer any terms they wish but through these terms we can eliminate certain brokers claiming to be ECN’s or not just by their nature. Therefore, a true ECN broker will:
ECN Brokers pass your order through directly to the market ideally to match other bids instantly.
ECN Brokers charge commission on each trade to earn a profit.
ECN Brokers offer variable spreads.
ECN Brokers generally require larger initial deposits.
ECN Brokers have multiple liquidity providers by definition.
ECN Brokers can not necessarily give a “no-slippage” guarantee.

ECN BROKERS WILL NOT:

ECN Brokers do not have a dealing desk.
ECN Brokers should not be considered market makers.
ECN Brokers do not offer fixed spreads with no commissions.
ECN Brokers usually do not offer $1 or other low deposit accounts.
ECN Brokers do not have a limited amount (or one) liquidity provider,

Now we talk about a market maker like Forex.com, and we know its not an outright scam broker theives in the night stealing your account; I’ve made money there, withdrawn multiple times over the years so the idea that they are scammers is off.  What is more accurate is the fact their pool of liquidity is so large (i.e. so many traders use them) that it’s very easy for them to have a trader (really a group of traders) paying off the traders that enter winning positions, all happening in different amounts at different times all handled by the software.  What I don’t know for sure is if they put you in manual execution mode like other market makers if you do so well, essentially passing your trades through a trader at their dealing desk before it reaches the market, adding as you can imagine a large amount of latency to your executions that would just not occur on an ECN broker by definition. Worse yet, ECN’s or brokerages that claim to be ECN’s simply because they have a few liquidity providers (making them technically something other than a simple market maker) to m e does not make them a TRUE ECN BROKER, what an ECN does do is provide its clients with the ability to reach multiple pools of liquidity involving everyone (banks, traders, institutions), that is, the interbank market.  I have had people ask me, how do I find a Currenex broker, now, do not be confused, Currenex is simply a technology/trading platform that many ECN’s may offer it’s clients use.  I just was demo-ing Currenex on FXCM’s power trader platform which seems to be a true ECN but offers a low first time deposit. I would love to hear other’s thoughts on this platform, but my main point is not to confuse Currenex with ECN, two separate things that are not in competition as ECNs vs Market Makers are in my opinion.

We can disagree on the minute details but if you’d like to respond about any additions to what makes an ECN broker an ECN, discuss some brokers that might not be ECN’s that are claiming to be or anything in between, respond below.

GBPJPY lost alot of its value today as well before retracing over 200 pips, just another wacky friday pair to trade but trying to do some real analysis on it I see some ways to profit off the chaos of the day.

After I made this chart, GBPJPY went all the way down to 130.00 before retracing to where you see it now, so another chart would do some justice here but since it ended up where it is hours before the spike down I will not waste your time with more charts, what I do see is 2 great spots to get in, one near the beginning of the down trend all the way up by 134.00 and another after a retracement and strong rejection of the 133.80 level near a chandelier stop indicator then down over 200 pips.

EURJPY was one pair at least that did not follow suit with the Tsunami / Earthquake news and cause a huge demand for Yen, we actually saw JPY push EUR down today before much of the other moves happened and keep it near 113.50 levels which is a weekly pivot as well, so no tremendous volume on this toward the downside like on the other Yen crosses.

In this chart I point out a great spot not only where price action gets us in, this candle stick set up engulfing bear candle strong rejection of 115.03 and a 200 pip move down to 112.75 before bouncing back another 100 pips to 113.70 where it is today.  Many new traders see this in pip value, I see this in percentages and overall value, EURJPY lost almost 3% of its value today before giving back another 1% (if we’re dealing with 115Euro per 1JPY, then 115 down to 112 in one day is significant and telling about the future for EURO not the Yen necessarily.

Im going to keep my eye on the debt woes out of the Eurozone next week.

NZDUSD really started to make some gains against the dollar today after weeks of decline but for next week I would be unsure as to an overall direction.