Forex Probability Indicator

I’ve been following the development of FerruFx’s Probability Meter for trading Forex with MetaTrader 4.  To be quite honest, I find this to be a pretty brilliant tool for those of us who like to see in BOLD colors which way to trade.  This tool could easily keep you out of the most disastrous trades by shorting a currency that is clearly strong or buying a currency that is weak.  The Probability Meter will show you not only the direction of the trend but how strongly it is moving in that direction.

Basically, how this indicator works is the user must determine whether or not the individual indicators within the chart align.  The creator says that 75-80% is a  good trigger for an entry, but without a doubt other things should be considered like Fib levels and pivot levels.

Example how you can trade with the Probability Indicator from FerruFx: “attach the Meter on M15 and the 2TFs below (M5 and M1). First, the 2 additional indicators on the 3 TFs must agree. Then watch the numbers of the 3 others indicators (doesn’t matter which TF because the number will be the same). If these numbers are about the ones i suggested in the explanation above, then the Global % would be close to a good entry point. 75% seems to work well but with experience we’ll all find our % which we are confortable with.”

 The Probability Indicator works with the following currency pairs:

EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD

EURJPY
EURGBP
EURCHF
EURAUD
GBPJPY
GBPCHF
AUDJPY
NZDUSD
NZDJPY
AUDNZD
CHFJPY
EURCAD
AUDCAD

The indicator by itself is only $67.  Check out Forex Forums for a discussion on the Probability Indicator.

Using DiNapoli Levels in Forex

Published at (www.mo4forex.com) My notes on the significance of DiNapoli levels in Forex trading. I recently came across a site made for and/or by Joe DiNapoli, a name I’ve heard thrown around and a name an indicator in MetaTrader4 fhat I have seen and tried out a few times in the past never really knowing what it did or the signficance it had on Forex Trading. This post is a brief outline of the things I’ve learned about trading DiNapoli levels and why they are indeed a great indicator of where price movment might reach. Read more

Forex Killer Scam or No Scam?

FOREX KILLER SCAM OR NO SCAM?

If you’ve been trading Forex and you haven’t heard of FOREX KILLER, don’t feel bad. You’ve probably stumbled across my blog while trying to Google whether or not Forex Killer is a scam. First off, let me say I’m not like the 100’s of other idiot bloggers out there “reviewing” Forex Killer while putting my affiliate link to their program in somehow. I do not get paid for promoting Forex Killer, even though I belong to click bank I refrain from promoting something you might lose money with. This review is unbiased and is as fair and balanced as possible. Secondly, most of these bloggers probably didnt even purchase Forex Killer like I did, therefore I have first hand knowledge on this software as well. That being said, let me say that Forex Killer is not a scam. When used correctly, Forex Killer makes you pips, makes you money. But Forex Killer is nothing BRILLIANT, as I will discuss later on. I will say though, that Forex Killer has put itself through a mass media campaign, blanketing 1000’s of sites with their links and good reviews, which, for the most part, obscure unbiased reviews such as this one. I have yet to see someone actually try out Forex Killer in real time or without a sales pitch like this blog entry does.

I’ve even seen on Youtube a handful of videos showing “real” testimonies from people making money with Forex Killer. Interestingly enough, these videos of women testifying to the effectiveness of Forex Killer are popping up. The very attractive young lady from Mexico City seems to be reading verbatim off of a script on the screen. The other lady seems to have a basic knowledge of the software, but she fumbles around with her speech, looks at the screen a few times and regains her train of thought… talking points on the screen perhaps? All valid questions that can be posed to the makers of these videos which coincidentally are closed for commenting. The Forex-Killer.com website has pictures of Dodge Vipers, beautiful summer villas, leading you to believe that the owner’s are living it up based on predictions made by this software. Maybe they are, but most likely they are living it up from selling 1000’s of people Forex Killer, but that’s just conjecture.

The Plot Thickens (For Me At Least)
At the end of November, I emailed Forex Killer’s support department voicing concerns over why my version of Forex Killer looks so “dinky” compared to the one in the video example I saw on Youtube and in the screenshots on their site. Still haven’t gotten a response. The video was from August. I paid $97 in November for a version of Forex Killer which is clearly outdated months ago. I even read on another blog somewhere, a guy saying he got the “updated version of Forex recently” but could this have been one of their clever marketers making this post to make people who like to investigate things, like me, think they’re going crazy or just plain feel stupid for not being able to find the new version? Maybe they hope we missed the email from them? At any rate, this “dinky” version of Forex Killer prevents me from automatically feeding data into it from Meta Trader 4, rather I have to sit there trying to enter them one by one. This newer version of FOREX KILLER has a title of FOREX SIGNAL SOFTWARE in the title bar for the application and allows you to click one button and the price data is entered, no fuss. This all makes me wonder if Forex-Killer.com is the original Forex Killer or is a derivative of some other software? I hope not, I really thought I was going to get the software on the right. At any rate, I hope I am wrong and they email me soon to rectify this discrepancy, maybe there’s a secret page for a download for the newer looking version.

Above Pictures:
SCREENSHOT ON LEFT is What I Paid For And Got (From Desktop)
SCREENSHOT ON RIGHT is The Advertised Version (From Forex-Killer.com)

Enough With The Drama, Does Forex Killer Work?
As for it’s functionality, I read through the instructions a few times, and was left wondering how this can be effective at any time of day for any pair but after using it for a while I answered my own question. Forex Killer, quite simply, takes the previous 10 closes and works out if the trend is going up down, or is flat. This also begs the question, if the hour trend is up, and the 30 minute, 15 minute, and 5 minute are down, which trend should you trade? Forex Killer really doesn’t spell that out for you, nor will you be getting clear entry and exit points from them. That being said, most professional traders, guys who have been in the business for years can probably look at a chart and within 2 seconds figure out exactly what Forex Killer is going to tell a beginner for the price of $97. Inevitably, nothing can predict the final movement of any pair in the Forex market, don’t expect Forex Killer to do that either, that’s why they say X% effective trades, because even price can go against the trend from time to time.

PLEASE DON’T BE FOOLED BY OTHER PEOPLE’S “REVIEWS”
For instance, visit this page http://www.squidoo.com/forexkillerreview , this guy paints this bright picture of Forex Killer, but at the end, puts his aff code at the bottom = TOTALLY BIASED!

So be warned: Any “Review” Of Forex Killer that ends with a link that has “CLICKBANK” in it somewhere, it means the reviewer is biased. Not necessarily lying, but he has a good reason to, and that reason is financial gain. Some webmasters even redirect pages from their site to mask the link. So, rule of thumb, any review of any Forex software, without a link to the program, means its fair and balanced.

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Alligator Indicators for MetaTrader 4

Alligator

“Most of the time the market remains stationary. Only for some 15–30% of time the market generates trends, and traders who are not located in the exchange itself derive most of their profits from the trends. My Grandfather used to repeat: “Even a blind chicken will find its corns, if it is always fed at the same time”. We call the trade on the trend “a blind chicken market”. It took us years, but we have produced an indicator, that lets us always keep our powder dry until we reach the blind chicken market”

Bill Williams

Understanding Alligator Indicator will help you immensely from trade to trade on Forex. Alligator Technical Indicator is a combination of Balance Lines that use fractal geometry and nonlinear dynamics.

• The blue line (Alligator’s Jaw) is the Balance Line for the timeframe that was used to build the chart (13-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved into the future by 8 bars);
• The red line (Alligator’s Teeth) is the Balance Line for the value timeframe of one level lower (8-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved by 5 bars into the future);
• The green line (Alligator’s Lips) is the Balance Line for the value timeframe, one more level lower (5-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved by 3 bars into the future).

Lips, Teeth and Jaw of the Alligator show the interaction of different time periods. As clear trends can be seen only 15 to 30 per cent of the time, it is essential to follow them and refrain from working on markets that fluctuate only within certain price periods.

It is based on a 13-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved 8 bars into the future. The red line represents the Alligator’s Teeth. It is based on an 8-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved 5 bars into the future. The green line represents the Alligator’s Lips. It is based 5-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved 3 bars into the future. Lips, Teeth and Jaw of the Alligator show the interaction of different time periods. As the 3 lines move, clear trends develop. The Alligator indicator indicates when to follow the trend and when to refrain from entering the market over certain periods.